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- 大鱷買錯 Netflix 的教訓
大鱷買錯 Netflix 的教訓
me want faat daat
April 22, 2022
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如果有留意最近 Netflix 新聞，除咗用戶首次下跌同股價蒸發三成（由最高位計實際係跌咗七成），最 juicy 嘅新聞莫過於億萬富豪、著名對沖基金經理 Bill Ackman 三個月前買入價值 11億嘅 Netflix 股票，前兩日認輸放手，蝕咗 4 億。
之後 Bill Ackman 向股東寫咗封信，等我摘錄幾句：
The loss on our investment reduced the Pershing Square Funds’ year-to-date returns by four percentage points. Reflecting this loss, as of today’s close, the Pershing Square Funds are down approximately two percent year-to-date.
While we have a high regard for Netflix’s management and the remarkable company they have built, in light of the enormous operating leverage inherent in the company’s business model, changes in the company’s future subscriber growth can have an outsized impact on our estimate of intrinsic value. In our original analysis, we viewed this operating leverage favorably due to our long-term growth expectations for the company.
大鱷睇錯 Netflix 嘅幾個教訓：
1. 投資1001 — 唔好 buy high sell low 🙅
講就容易，當華爾街嘅著名基金經理都會犯錯，我地呢啲凡人就肯定會經常錯。買錯 Netflix 令 Pershing Square Fund 年初至今嘅回報少 4 個百分點，而 Bill Ackman 就解釋最初分析認為 Netflix 有潛在用戶同價值增長，但最新公佈嘅訂閱數字同佢地嘅預測行相反方向。如果我地單靠過去兩年「非常可觀」 嘅股票市場做推算，幾乎人人都可以賺大錢，但事實係大多數時間都無可能好似 2020 同 2021上半年咁 happy，隻隻科技股兩位數咁升。
當一個管理緊幾百億嘅基金背後有一大班專業人士做分析都會計錯，我地就更加唔好亂挑戰市場同買個股，以為今次一定唔同 (this time is different)，如果唔係錯嘅永遠都係同一個原因：齋睇短期發展就入手，最後 buy high sell low。我地要睇長線、腳踏實地咁發達，buy high 就要 sell high！
2. 唔好將雞蛋放曬係一個籃 🙅♂️
跟我講三次：diversification 好重要，diversification 好重要，diversification 好重要！點解散戶盡量唔好買個股嘅原因就係避免一鋪清袋，人地個基金輸咗 4 億都仲有百幾億，散戶買個股一輸就分分鐘唔見 1x%：一我地無咁多資金買 N 隻股，二我地無時間同專業知識揀股。最簡單又最可以幫你分散投資方法都係嗰個：買 index fund / ETF。當Facebook、Netflix、Zoom 得益於疫情大升又大跌雙位數，標指都係幾個百分點內上落。
如果你諗：唔係啊，呢排我真係有做功課，睇好某某公司 / 某某行業㗎，咁就要重溫我之前寫「小賭怡情 大賭變李嘉誠」講華爾街點樣跑輸大市喇。又係嗰三幅被啦：你照鏡見唔到巴菲特就唔好 FF 咁多喇。
祝大家荷包早日fat fat 🤑
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